Sustainability initiatives can face early struggles to gain traction. An inherent difficulty is that these efforts consist of actions we’ll take today to address problems in the future. When an issue isn’t immediately present, it can be difficult to rally support, especially without incentives. When sustainability efforts gain momentum, they provide significant societal benefit and can be quickly adopted as the norm.
Astra Carta
King Charles’ Astra Carta initiative is building momentum for sustainable activities in space. The forward-looking endeavor recognizes the economic and security issues we will face in space, as our footprint expands orbitally.
I was fortunate to join King Charles and other members of the international space industry last month at Buckingham Palace. Proposals were discussed for public and private alignment on a single roadmap to set guidelines for space operations. A key near-term goal is to raise awareness and drive sustainability into the forefront of our industry’s collective mind.
Sustainability
To approach the topic, we first define the word:
Sustainability: the ability to maintain a certain rate or level
This is straightforward. We’re performing a set of operations and we want to continue doing so indefinitely. However, this definition doesn’t necessarily inform what those operations are or why we want to maintain them.
Understanding the what is the biggest leap to understanding the importance of space sustainability. Space can be viewed as a scientific domain far removed from our day-to-day life. Yet, space infrastructure actually provides basic capability to our economy and national security.
The easiest example to consider is the closing of a financial transaction: stock trades, ATM withdrawals and peer-to-peer cash apps. Every one of these relies on precise GPS based timing data to settle the transactions in the right order. Billions of transactions happen daily and this is the tip of the iceberg of our reliance of space based infrastructure.
To lose that capability would be catastrophic. As an example, it’s estimated that the US economy would suffer a $1.5 billion impact per day if GPS was disrupted. This illustrates why we must ensure sustainable space activities.
Simple Scenarios
It can also be helpful to consider a practical scenario in which an activity in space might become unsustainable. Currently, there are approximately 2200 dead satellites in space. Many are in useful orbits. Many are also ownerless. They launched decades ago and over that time, the parent organization may have been acquired, dissolved, merged or otherwise changed form. Few are insured.
One scenario is collision. An ownerless, defunct satellite impacts a modern, operating spacecraft. This results in direct economic damage to the satellite asset. It also causes indirect damage via loss of service capability. With no owner and no insurance, it is difficult to attribute or manage liability.
For a less extreme example, consider an instance where a satellite operator is working to deploy a new constellation. However, in the planning phase, it is identified that there are multiple dead satellites in or near the target orbit. While the probability of collision may be low, it’s non-zero, which could make it difficult to secure financing for the endeavor. If a set of conditions exist that preclude the operation from even starting, then we’ve entered an unsustainable regime.
Inflection Point
We’re past the inflection point of relying on space assets for basic day-to-day operations. However, we’re right at the inflection point where sustainability threats will become more real. The absolute quantity of objects launching into space has reached a point of exponential increase. Similarly, the number of private organizations operating in space is also rapidly expanding. Many new parties and many new objects will create many new threats to the infrastructure we all rely on.
There are many strategies we can employ to promote sustainable space operations. These include provisions for spacecraft retrievability, agreement for on orbit usage, insurance and liability planning, as well as economic incentives for private organizations to align. Over the coming years, these points will be addressed by the Astra Carta and other initiatives. As they do, its important for industry to both join and raise awareness for sustainable practices in the rapidly expanding space ecosystem.